Curse

WinterSnowblind · Jul 09, 2007, 09:16 AM // 09:16

The loot scaling has clearly had an effect on the economy, but I also think it has something to do with the Obsidian armour, it's not overly sought after anymore. When somebody wears it, everyone assumed they've eBayed the account or the money for it, instead of it being prestigious. A lot of the newer armour looks better and is far more detailed.

Thus less people need Ectoplasms, especially now that the price is just continually dropping. I do see it dropping even further.

Funny though, if the price does drop to around 500g, I imagine a lot of people will go for the Obsidian armour just because they can. That might increase the price of Ectos again?

RTSFirebat · Jul 09, 2007, 09:37 AM // 09:37

The lower the better I say, Ectos have been insanely overpriced for too long now. Them going down in price is a good thing!

Sword Liger · Jul 09, 2007, 09:49 AM // 09:49

Personally, I would like to see a higher demand for them in GW:EN. Fow armour sucks and is clearly outdated. Bring out Elite FOW armour or something else...It's either that or bring out a new alternative thats not insanley hard to farm.

Lootscale for teh lose.

arcanemacabre · Jul 09, 2007, 10:08 AM // 10:08

I honestly think loot scaling has had little affect on the price of ecto. I think most of the reason is because we haven't had any new releases or classes to go with that, and GWEN is due to be released soon. This creates a double-whammy to the economy:

1) Most of those who were going to get Obsidian armor on any of their characters probably have by now.

&

2) People are saving up for new armor/rare items that will be coming with GWEN.

Hard Mode is another factor to consider. The more rare items introduced into the economy means the supply goes up, and demand goes down. It's clear to see all the higher-end rare items are dropping in price every day because of this, which means more and more items that were once 100k +XXecto is slowly going to drop below 100k - which means little to no more use for ecto as a form of currency. This realization among owners of several ecto or several stacks of ecto might force a liquidation and reinvestment into something like gems/jewels or lockpicks or whatever.

Hyper Cutter · Jul 09, 2007, 01:43 PM // 13:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by I pwnd U

Just think about all those people that got FoW when Ecto was 16k. Bet they are kicking themselves right now.

Just the way it is, I'm afraid *bought Vabbian for his necro when both gems were at roughly 8k*...

Anyway, ecto SHOULD be cheaper. Its (improper) use as super-currency made its price skyrocket, when it should cost roughly the same as shards (needed in the same amount for FoW) do...

Jetdoc · Jul 09, 2007, 02:41 PM // 14:41

Loving every drop in price. I wish Shards would plummet at such a rate as well.

Gli · Jul 09, 2007, 02:53 PM // 14:53

As soon as the downward trend started, I converted all my ectoplasm to diamonds, working under the assumption that GW:EN being the final instalment, it will feature a use for diamonds. If things go my way I could make millions.

If not, oh well, it's not like I have a use for riches anyway.

Mordakai · Jul 09, 2007, 03:05 PM // 15:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gli

If things go my way I could make millions.

If not, oh well, it's not like I have a use for riches anyway.

Exactly. I stopped worrying about money as soon as I heard about GW2...

Komes I · Jul 09, 2007, 03:17 PM // 15:17

I hope that price will drop.

pnumm · Jul 09, 2007, 03:17 PM // 15:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gli

As soon as the downward trend started, I converted all my ectoplasm to diamonds, working under the assumption that GW:EN being the final instalment, it will feature a use for diamonds. If things go my way I could make millions.

If not, oh well, it's not like I have a use for riches anyway.

I converted them into bricks of clay under the assumption they will ever be useful

MarlinBackna · Jul 09, 2007, 04:27 PM // 16:27

Quote:

the price of your gold is going up

Realize that the value of gold going up is not a good thing. Not when other items (armor, in particular) are the same price. As for ectos, I used to trap UW a long time ago, but as soon as the downward trend started, I quickly rerolled that character (I hate rangers anyway, now its a lvl 2 going for 3 survivor paragon

). I applaud those who changed their ectos to something stable like diamonds or lockpicks....I wonder if there was anyone who did that in the first place....hmm....

October Jade · Jul 09, 2007, 04:30 PM // 16:30

A few common misconceptions to amend...my inner economist is screaming.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Blackstar

With so much gold flooding the market, it drives up the prices for everything, because many players are greedy and want a piece of the pie. Well when something like that is done, sooner or later you will have a market crash, because supply will be up, but demand will fall, basic economics.

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcanemacabre

The more rare items introduced into the economy means the supply goes up, and demand goes down.

Supply curves and demand curves operate independently of each other; it is their interaction that determines price. A shift in supply will never impact aggregate demand in any way, nor vice versa.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hyper Cutter

Anyway, ecto SHOULD be cheaper. Its (improper) use as super-currency made its price skyrocket, when it should cost roughly the same as shards (needed in the same amount for FoW) do...

Removing the additional utility of ectoplasm as a form of currency should indeed bring its price closer to that of obsidian, ceteris paribus. The determinant factor in that situation is whether or not the two materials share equivalent drop rates. If players find it easier to farm one than the other, clearly the material that is more readily available will be less expensive.

thunderai · Jul 09, 2007, 05:37 PM // 17:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by October Jade

Removing the additional utility of ectoplasm as a form of currency should indeed bring its price closer to that of obsidian, ceteris paribus. The determinant factor in that situation is whether or not the two materials share equivalent drop rates. If players find it easier to farm one than the other, clearly the material that is more readily available will be less expensive.

I think this is perhaps the most important part. Save for a few types of items supply and demand as judged by the merchant is not fixed. It would be nice to see some type of graph that puts this into a visual perspective. Not just a basic supply/demand chart but one with actual values.

We know the price of ectos has been dropping from 10k to 5k to who knows what, but if anyone knows the price of ectos on a given date a chart could be made to explain the issue in more detail.

If Shards and Ectos have the same drop rate, they should have the same value, unless one is in higher demand because of some other constraint. That isn’t fow armor, it’s the false market demand on them, cause of KEWL factor. They are not kewl, they are an item for which to make fow armor, they should be nothing else.

Ectos are a good example of a luxury good gone bad. People have touched on this before as well. If everyone who wants FOW armor has it at the current price level, the price will decrease as there is less demand. if farmers continue to produce ectos the price will continue to decrease. If farmers move to another type of good, the price for ectos will reestablish at a new level, although lower than before.

If a player is concerned about money in GW, my own option is to quite playing, but if you play GW to make money as if it was a real stock market, you have to think like it.

If bots farm ectos, players farm ectos, and everyone farms ectos, STOP FOR THE LOVE OF GOD FARMING ECTOS. The more ectos on the market, the less they will cost. End of Sentence.

Demand could always be the same and as long as more people sell ectos to the merchant the lower their cost will be. Either don’t sell them to the merchant at all and create a black market, or sell to the merchant something else other than ectos.

Then as less people sell ectos the price will increase again. The problem is human nature. Say I want fow armor, but I’ve been watching the price of ectos decrease. I know I should wait more time until the price is lower. This will make the price lower just because of our wanting it to be lower, its called Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.

The Reserve (anet) has to make a choice (which I bet they already have), let demand slowly decrease over time as more people leave guild wars or get fow armor, or cause an increase need in ectos. I would expect the answer is simple, ectos are a crafting material nothing more or less. They are not and should not be used for or as money.

The merchants of GW (Players) than need to invest in a different item, which I suggest being gold. There is no one item that has a fixed cost, lock picks are close, but their price could change for whatever reason. Gold wont loose value or gain value it is what it is.

I would hasten a guess that the economy of guild wars is not in ruins as everyone may say it is, it is simply changing as people wants and desires change. That is no different than our own economy in the real world. The price of cars doesn’t decrease because we ‘left’ living.

wynoski · Jul 09, 2007, 05:37 PM // 17:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by WinterSnowblind

The loot scaling has clearly had an effect on the economy, but I also think it has something to do with the Obsidian armour, it's not overly sought after anymore. When somebody wears it, everyone assumed they've eBayed the account or the money for it, instead of it being prestigious. A lot of the newer armour looks better and is far more detailed.

Thus less people need Ectoplasms, especially now that the price is just continually dropping. I do see it dropping even further.

Funny though, if the price does drop to around 500g, I imagine a lot of people will go for the Obsidian armour just because they can. That might increase the price of Ectos again?

As Posted by October Jade and tying in other thoughts..
Demand for Ectos has gone down due to other Aromors. I personlly like only the Paragon FOW set. Vabbian Armor is actually pretty tough for the averae player to get, hence the Ruby and Sapphire market is a bit high and relatively stable.

Ectos are not part of loot scaling and with the intro of Passage Scrools, more people can farm them. The more Ectos sold to the Merchant, the less valuable they are on the market.

Gold Items now are plentyful and it needs to be perfect and rare skin to be worht anything...I was an an Urgotz group yesterday and someone was selling +30 Health Bow grips for 10k. Our party leader laughed and gave the potential seller one of the 4 +30 bow grips he had in invnetory.

Age · Jul 09, 2007, 08:38 PM // 20:38

I haven't gotten a drop yet since going to the UW and only one in the TomPs.It would be nice to see an incease however as cheap as they dropping it still costs to buy them and not the casual gamer can do this.What is the casual gamer suppose to do if they would like FoW on say more than one char.I see a lot of players wearing FoW I wonder if they really farmed for it or e-bayed it.

It is ok if the price goes down but there is the cost of the other mats as wll as the crafting costs as 1 set of FoW use to be as worth as 1 ecto.

arcanemacabre · Jul 10, 2007, 12:32 AM // 00:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by October Jade

Supply curves and demand curves operate independently of each other; it is their interaction that determines price. A shift in supply will never impact aggregate demand in any way, nor vice versa.

When it comes to rare items, such as antiques in real life, that is not true at all. How much of an item there is, the less people want it. Simple as that.

October Jade · Jul 10, 2007, 01:41 AM // 01:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcanemacabre

When it comes to rare items, such as antiques in real life, that is not true at all. How much of an item there is, the less people want it. Simple as that.

What you are describing is known as a Veblen good, and to my knowledge has not ever been proven to exist. The concept of such an item only occurs as a means of supporting the hypothesis of conspicuous consumption.

If you're interested in debating econ theory, feel free to pm me. This probably isn't the best place for it.

Gimme Money Plzkthx · Jul 10, 2007, 01:46 AM // 01:46

Lootscaling means that to make money fast, you have to farm something exempt from it, i.e. ectos or shards. This means that with more people farming ecto, supply increases and thus price decreases... combine this with obsidian armor being less prestigious and not looking as cool, and here you go with the price drop...

arcanemacabre · Jul 10, 2007, 01:46 AM // 01:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by October Jade

What you are describing is known as a Veblen good, and to my knowledge has not ever been proven to exist. The concept of such an item only occurs as a means of supporting the hypothesis of conspicuous consumption.

If you're interested in debating econ theory, feel free to pm me. This probably isn't the best place for it.

Funny, because I thought that's what this thread was about.

Do you disagree with the rarity of an item having any effect on how desirable it is? It's honestly common sense, not any kind of economic theory. If Crystalline Swords were the skin of collectible swords, do you honestly think there would be equivalent demand for them, and equivalent value attributed to them? Think about it.

drago34 · Jul 10, 2007, 03:44 AM // 03:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcanemacabre

...Do you disagree with the rarity of an item having any effect on how desirable it is? It's honestly common sense, not any kind of economic theory. If Crystalline Swords were the skin of collectible swords, do you honestly think there would be equivalent demand for them, and equivalent value attributed to them? Think about it.

Yes, Of course!
/sarcasm